It’s time to go the tank route in Leaf land.
After an 0-for-3 funk in California, the Toronto Maple Leafs have less than a 15 per cent chance to make the playoffs.
To make the eight seed in the Eastern Conference, teams will need 96 points to have a probable (better than 50 per cent) chance at the playoffs, which would mean the Leafs would have to go 22-10-5 from here on out.
That’s expecting an under-.500 Leafs team (22-20-3) to win 59 per cent games or pick up 49 points in 37 games. No matter how much their defence has improved recently, that’s not happening.
The Leafs should realize that the playoffs are not a realistic possibility and tank the rest of the season.
Since the 2005-2006 NHL season the Leafs have only made the playoffs once and only had a bottom three NHL finishing once (they traded that would-be Tyler Seguin pick). Those finishings in the Eastern Conference? 9th twice, 12th thrice, 13th twice and 10th once.
Bad enough to not make the playoffs but too good to get a high pick in the entry draft. It’s been the theme of the Leafs for the last decade or so — mediocrity.
They need to cut their losses and start tanking for a top pick in this year’s draft. If the draft started at the beginning of play today, the Leafs, 10th in the East, would have the 12th overall pick, again following with the theme of mediocrity.
The Leafs are the 12th worst team in the NHL but there are four teams behind them within four points who have played either the same amount or fewer games. That means they could realistically take a tumble in the standings and end up with a top10 pick.
That’s better than being somewhere between 11 and 14 and not qualifying for the playoffs, which is where they are today.
The Leafs could use a high pick, too. They need a No.1 centreman and a No.1 defeceman. Even beyond Connor McDdavid and Jack Eichel, there are potential No.1 centremans like Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner. On the defesive side, there are potential No.1 defecmen like Noah Hanifin and Oliver-Kylington.
The difference of five spots could be the difference of a bonafide superstar to a uncertain top-fix forward. That’s the difference of a Nazem Kadri (7th overall) to a Matt Duchene (3rd overall) or a Jiri Tlusty (13th overall) to a Jonathan Bernier (11th overall).
The Leafs can go one of two ways now. They can either fall in that grey zone of mediocrity or they can tank and can truly be bad. The difference in this season will be the same: no playoffs. But looking long-term a higher pick in the draft will get them further to where they want to be.
NorthernNemers 